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FUTURE-005: Sportsbook Odds API

Status: Idea (not started) Priority: Medium (high value for sports markets only) Effort: Medium Cost: Free to Low (aggregator APIs available)

Problem

Kalshi has sports markets (game outcomes, player props). Legal sportsbooks (DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM) price these same events with deep liquidity and sophisticated models.

Sportsbook odds are a strong signal for Kalshi sports market pricing.

Proposed Solution

Add a sportsbook odds provider that:

  1. Fetches odds from major sportsbooks via aggregator API
  2. Converts odds formats (American, decimal) to probabilities
  3. Compares against Kalshi sports market pricing

MVP Scope

# Compare Kalshi sports market to sportsbook consensus
kalshi sportsbook compare <KALSHI_TICKER>

# Show sportsbook odds for an event
kalshi sportsbook odds "Lakers vs Celtics"

Data Sources

Provider Cost Coverage
The Odds API Free tier (500 req/mo) Major US sportsbooks
Odds API (paid) $20-80/mo More sports, historical
BetQL, Action Network Subscription Analysis + odds

Recommendation: Start with The Odds API free tier for validation.

Why Medium Priority

Pros: - Sportsbooks have sophisticated pricing models - Free/cheap aggregator APIs exist - Direct probability comparison

Cons: - Only useful for sports markets - Kalshi sports markets may be thin - Timing differences (sportsbooks update rapidly)

Implementation Notes

  • The Odds API: https://the-odds-api.com/
  • Need sport/event mapping to Kalshi tickers
  • American odds to probability: prob = 100 / (odds + 100) for positive odds
  • Consider vig removal for fair probability

Dependencies

  • None (can be built independently)
  • Optional: integrate with ResearchProvider for unified context

Open Questions

  • Which sports does Kalshi actually have active markets for?
  • How to map sportsbook events to Kalshi tickers?
  • Store historical odds for line movement analysis?

Acceptance Criteria

To be defined when promoted to spec.